Value Walk
November 3, 2016

DLPR & MHP Pre-Election Survey on Investment Sentiment

DLPR/MHP Communications Survey: Political Uncertainty Clouds Otherwise Bright Global Investment Industry Outlook

Political Uncertainty Photo by wuestenigel

By Jacob Wolinsky

A pre-election survey of global institutional investors found an optimistic outlook for 2017 that is being somewhat tempered by the global swell of populist sentiment and political uncertainty that could pose a risk to future growth. The survey was conducted by Dukas Linden Public Relations, a leading financial services PR firm based in New York, and MHP Communications, a top 10 UK-based strategic communications consultancy with approximately 150 consultants in the UK, Germany and Asia.

The respondents, including CEOs and portfolio managers of multi-billion dollar investment firms and research analysts for leading broker-dealers in the US, UK, Europe and Asia, were generally positive about their firms’ performance and growth prospects. Nearly half (47%) of respondents expect their firms to perform better in the year ahead than in the previous 12 months; 39% felt performance would stay the same, while just 14% anticipated lower levels of performance.

“Our poll shows that institutional investment managers are optimistic about their prospects for solid performance in the coming year, as they pursue a diverse range of strategies to deliver returns for their clients,” said Richard Dukas, Chairman and CEO of DLPR.

Dukas added, “Yet this optimism is tempered by concerns that global economic progress may be set back by anti-free trade movements.”

Political uncertainty was a general concern for a majority of respondents; 75% of respondents said that they were “somewhat” or “very” concerned about the impact of current anti-trade populist political movements in the US and Europe. Furthermore, when asked about potential “black swan” events that may disrupt markets in 2017, the biggest concerns were populist political movements (52%), a significant cyber-attack on the financial system (47%), increased terrorist activity (28%), additional EU departures (27%), and sovereign debt crises (22%).

Forty-three percent of those polled felt that Hillary Clinton is the candidate that would best promote growth in the US, compared to 18% who chose Donald Trump.

Over half (53%) saw the US as the region most likely to deliver the best economic performance in the next 12 months. Asia (ex-China) and emerging markets (both 14%) were tied in second place, followed by Continental Europe (9%) and China (less than 5%).

With Brexit weighing on the minds of investment professionals, less than 2% saw the UK as a region likely to perform well, while Dublin and Frankfurt were seen as gaining at the expense of London.

Originally published by ValueWalk.